Home

ODDSPIRA v1.4

Football probabilities without the guesswork.

Calculate singles, accumulators and systems, model matches, track results and protect the bankroll.

Odds & Value Calculator

Compare the market price with your own estimated probability.

Decimal odds Example: 2.10

Your estimated probability (%) Example: 52

Stake Optional

Bankroll For Kelly

This calculator evaluates your inputs. It does not predict the match or guarantee profit.

Value results

Use the numbers as a filter before making a decision.

Implied probability—

Your fair odds—

Probability edge—

Expected value—

Expected profit—

Conservative ½ Kelly—

Enter valid values and calculate.

Poisson Match Calculator

Enter expected goals for the home and away teams.

Home xG Example: 1.65

Away xG Example: 1.05

Optional bookmaker odds

Home win

Draw

Away win

Over 2.5

BTTS Yes

Poisson assumes independent scoring and constant scoring rates. Treat the output as a model estimate, not certainty.

Match probabilities

Model probabilities, fair odds and optional value comparison.

Home win—Fair odds —

Draw—Fair odds —

Away win—Fair odds —

Over 2.5—Fair odds —

Under 2.5—Fair odds —

BTTS Yes—Fair odds —

Goals markets

Over 1.5

—

—

Model

Over 2.5

—

—

—

Over 3.5

—

—

Model

Under 2.5

—

—

Model

BTTS Yes

—

—

—

1X2 value check

Home win

—

—

No odds

Draw

—

—

No odds

Away win

—

—

No odds

Most likely correct scores

Add a bet

Your entries are stored locally in this browser.

Date

Result

Competition Example: Premier League

Match Example: Arsenal vs Chelsea

Selection Example: Over 2.5

Strategy / tag Example: Home value

Decimal odds

Stake

Analysis note Optional

Editing an existing bet

Bankroll setting

Starting bankroll

Offline mode: data stays on this device. CSV is useful for Excel; Full backup preserves everything and can be restored later.

Betting performance

Track profit, ROI, strike rate and bankroll movement.

Total bets00 pending

Settled stake0.00Won + lost bets

Profit0.00Net result

ROI0.00%Profit / stake

Strike rate0.00%Wins / decisions

Current bankroll1000.00Peak drawdown 0.00

Bankroll curve

Date	Match	Selection	Strategy	Odds	Stake	Result	Profit

No bets saved yet.

Performance breakdown

Only won and lost bets are used for ROI and win rate.

By competition

By selection / market

By strategy

Bankroll & Staking Calculator

Choose a method and calculate a disciplined stake.

Current bankroll

Bankroll percentage Recommended test: 1–2%

Decimal odds

Estimated probability (%)

Kelly fraction

Fixed stake amount

Losing streak simulation

Consecutive losses

Stake behavior

No staking system removes variance. The goal is to survive losing runs and avoid oversized bets.

Staking results

Stake size, risk level and bankroll after a losing streak.

Recommended stake——

Bankroll after streak——

Bankroll drawdown—After selected losses

Losses to halve bankroll—Approximation

Recovery needed—Gain needed to recover

Risk rating——

Conservative — Aggressive

Initial bankroll—

Total lost—

Average stake—

Final stake—

Stress test

Losing streak	Remaining bankroll	Drawdown	Recovery required

Calculate a staking plan to see the risk assessment.

Accumulator & System Calculator

Build a slip and compare the bookmaker price with your estimated probabilities.

Selection

Odds

Your %

Total stake

Bankroll For ½ Kelly

System size Example: 2 from 3

Multiplying probabilities assumes the selections are independent. Related markets from the same match may be correlated and can make the result misleading.

Accumulator results

Combined price, probability and expected value.

Combined odds—Bookmaker price

Bookmaker implied probability—Before margin adjustment

Your combined probability—Assuming independence

Fair odds—From your probabilities

Expected value—Per total stake

Expected profit—Based on entered stake

Potential return—If all legs win

½ Kelly stake—Conservative Kelly

Selections—Number of legs

Enter selections and calculate.

Selection analysis

Add your own probability estimate for every selection. Without it, the calculator cannot evaluate value.

No-Vig & Bookmaker Margin

Remove the bookmaker margin and estimate fair probabilities.

Outcome

Decimal odds

Standard normalization assumes each outcome carries a proportional share of the bookmaker margin.

Fair market results

Bookmaker margin, normalized probabilities and no-vig odds.

Total implied probability—All outcomes combined

Bookmaker margin—Overround above 100%

Market quality——

Outcome	Book odds	Implied %	No-vig %	Fair odds	Margin share

Add the complete set of mutually exclusive market outcomes.

Dutching Calculator

Split a total stake across outcomes to balance the result.

Outcome

Decimal odds

Total stake

Dutching reduces variance across selected outcomes, but it does not create value by itself.

Dutching results

Stake allocation, return and profit for each selected outcome.

Total stake—Amount distributed

Target return——

Expected locked profit——

Outcome	Odds	Stake	Return	Profit	Stake share

Enter at least two valid outcomes.

Fair odds first

Remove bookmaker margin before judging whether a price is genuinely attractive.

Compare, do not chase

A higher bookmaker price than fair odds may indicate value, but only if the model inputs are sound.

Protect the bankroll

Use the Bankroll tool to stress-test stake size before risking real money.