How Oddspira Calculates Results

Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. Fair odds = 1 ÷ estimated probability. EV = probability × odds − 1.

The probability entered by the user is independent and reasonably calibrated.

A positive result depends completely on the quality of the probability estimate.

P(k goals) = e^(−λ) × λ^k ÷ k!. Score probabilities are combined into 1X2, totals and BTTS markets.

Scoring rates are constant and home and away goal counts are treated as independent.

Line-ups, red cards, tactics, game state and score correlation are not modelled automatically.

Fixed percentage, flat stake and fractional Kelly calculations are compared under losing-streak scenarios.

The bankroll is separate from essential money and entered probabilities are not overstated.

No staking method can turn a negative-value strategy into a profitable one.

Independent probabilities and decimal odds are multiplied. System bets enumerate all relevant combinations.

Selections are treated as independent unless the user accounts for correlation.

Same-match and related selections can make simple multiplication misleading.

Raw implied probabilities are divided by their total so the normalized market sums to 100%.

The complete set of mutually exclusive outcomes has been entered.

Proportional normalization may not reflect uneven margin distribution.

Target return = total stake ÷ Σ(1 ÷ odds). Each stake = target return ÷ outcome odds.

Covered outcomes and settlement rules are compatible.

Rounding, commission, stake limits and price movement can change real returns.

ROI = net profit ÷ settled stake. Drawdown is measured from the historical bankroll peak.

Every bet, including losses, is recorded consistently.

Short samples can be dominated by variance and do not prove a strategy.